This is not a run, but a warning signal: if the plan is to lower rates and inject pesos, the market wants to quickly see where that liquidity will be parked so it doesn't end up pressuring the dollar. This is where the political decision that changed the board comes in: the menu for the auction excluded fixed-rate peso instruments. The incentive, from the official perspective, is twofold: to strengthen reserves and sustain disinflation with lower rates, avoiding that internal credit is choked and the economic wheel gets stuck. The point is that the market doesn't buy narratives: it buys consistency. The S&P Merval rose by about 1.8% in pesos and 1.6% in dollars, although with a moderate trading volume: a piece of data that, in market jargon, suggests the improvement was more tactical than convinced. Investors' bet, on the other hand, is more cautious: they want to see the result of the auction, the rollover level in pesos, and the immediate reaction of the financial dollar. On the other side of the counter, sovereign bonds loosened again—with declines close to 1% in some segments—and pushed the country risk to the 545 basis points area, a level that remains too far from the 400 units the economic team considers a goal to think about cheaper and more sustainable financing. In specific stocks, the most visible blow continued to be Aluar: the paper fell 4.6% and accumulated a retreat of around 24% in the month, in a context traversed by regulatory changes that cut protections against imported competition, with a focus on products from China. The turning point will be seen this Wednesday, when the Treasury requests the foreign currency title AO27 for the first time, while the market tries to answer the big question: is there enough confidence for rates to be lowered without the exchange rate overheating? The backdrop doesn't help. For many desks, the signal is clear: the system's benchmark stops being 'how much do I pay for the peso today' and becomes 'what inflation do I expect and how stable do I think the exchange rate will be'. The debut of the dollar bond—AO27—is the other leg of the shift. In simple terms: when a market is already nervous, any signal that implies greater pressure on industrial margins is quickly reflected on the screen. The 'good' news of the day came from economic activity. The government's bet is that, with a greater dollar supply from agriculture and a growing contribution from the energy sector, the exchange rate will remain controlled and the rate cut will be compatible with descending inflation. INDEC reported that the EMAE showed an interannual growth of 3.5% and a monthly advance of 1.8% (a data that several analysts interpret as a year-end rebound), with the decisive influence of agriculture and the financial system. The total program aims to capture up to USD 2,000 million: dollars that are today in the banking system and that the government seeks to channel to cover debt maturities, with a focus on mid-year commitments. In the view of analysts like Alan Versalli, from Cocos, the Treasury sees that 'there are dollars looking for yield'—something already seen in corporate ON emissions via MEP—and wants to take advantage of that appetite to add dollars at a relative lower cost, without depending so much on Wall Street's mood while the country risk remains above 500. If the balance closes, the shift can become a 'regime signal'. If not, the market will make it known without a filter, as always. However, in the reading of the consulting firm F2 and its director Andrés Reschini, shadows appear in commerce, industry, and construction: sectors where the social perception of improvement is slower and where the political mood is usually felt before the graphs. In the foreign exchange market, the day had technical and expectative seasoning. The instrument, under local law, matures on October 29, 2027, pays 6% nominal annual, and has an attractive feature for the saver: monthly interest in dollars. The session was traversed by the price closing of a dollar-linked letter (a reference that pushed demand in the MLC), and the wholesale advanced to the $1,380 zone. In the first round, USD 150 million will be offered, and, according to the official scheme, an additional second round could be enabled. In parallel, the global dollar strengthened and the region became more 'selective': Brazil sustained a much superior stock market performance to the US indices so far this year, while Argentina remains lagging in the preference of several external funds, which ask for firmer signals before increasing local risk. With that climate, the domestic front showed a lukewarm rebound in stocks, but with persistent distrust in debt. Buenos Aires-February 25, 2026-Total News Agency-TNA-In the midst of global volatility that is once again shaking Wall Street and with investors eyeing every gesture from Donald Trump, the Argentine government begins to move a key piece of its anti-inflationary strategy: to stop validating high nominal rates in pesos, push a compression of yields, and at the same time go out to 'hunt' for dollars in the local market with a new hard dollar bond. The Central Bank (BCRA) bought foreign currencies again—about USD 48 million—and continued to reinforce reserves, a central piece of the official narrative: accumulating a 'cushion' to sustain the stabilization. At the same time, financial dollars also moved upwards: the MEP rose to the $1,405 zone, the 'contado con liquidación' (CCL) firmed near $1,444.50, and the blue hovered around $1,430. In the last rounds, the international mood changed from one day to the other, with the technology narrative—especially the actions linked to artificial intelligence—carrying the Nasdaq blows of enthusiasm and fear. In criollo, the Treasury avoided 'putting a floor' on the rate by validating high nominal yields and chose to focus on papers tied to CER, dollar-linked coverage, and debt directly in dollars.
